Louisiana Economic Situation—March 2023

Louisiana Economic Situation—March 2023

Key Point: Louisiana’s labor market looks okay on the surface, but weaknesses remain because of poor policies which hinder economic opportunity across the state. There’s need for a comeback agenda.

Louisiana’s Labor Market: The table below shows Louisiana’s labor market over time until the latest data for February 2023 from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

June 2009 February 2020 April 2020 February 2023
Labor force participation rate 61.2% 58.3% 55.5% 59.0%
Employment-population ratio 56.9% 55.5% 48.0% 56.9%
Unemployment rate (U3) 7.0% 5.2% 13.5% 3.6%
Total nonfarm employment 1.90M 1.99M 1.71M 1.95M
Private sector employment 1.53M 1.66M 1.39M 1.63M

Data compare the following: 1) June 2009—Dated trough of that U.S. recession, 2) February 2020—Dated peak of the last U.S. expansion, 3) April 2020—Dated trough of the last U.S. recession, and 4) February 2023—Latest data available.

The establishment survey shows that net total nonfarm jobs in the state increased by 2,400 jobs last month (+0.1%), bringing total jobs to 46,600 jobs below the pre-shutdown level in February 2020. Private sector employment was up by 2,500 jobs (+0.2%) and government employment declined by 100 jobs (-0.1%) last month. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 35,500 jobs (+1.9%), which was the 7th lowest rate in the country, with the private sector adding 31,700 jobs (+2.0%) and the government adding 3,800 jobs (+1.2%).

The household survey finds that the working-age population declined by 1,181 people (-0.03%) last month, down 12,944 people (-0.4%) over the last year, and down 31,247 people (-0.9%) since February 2020. But the civilian labor force rose by 8,240 people (+0.4%) last month, 4,312 people (+0.2%) over last year, and 9,465 people (+0.5%) since February 2020. These figures result in a labor force participation rate of 59.0%, which is up from 58.3% since pre-shutdown but well below the 61.2% rate in June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. While the unemployment rate of 3.6% is substantially lower than the 5.2% rate in February 2020, a broader look at Louisiana’s labor market shows that Louisianans still face challenges, especially compared with neighboring states based on several measures.

Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently provided the real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3:2022 for Louisiana and other states.

The following table shows how U.S. and Louisiana economies performed since 2020. The steep declines were during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered most. The decline in real GDP annualized growth of -3% in Q2:2022 was the 5th worst and increase of +2.5% in Q3:2022 ranked 23rd in the country. 

2020   2021  Q1:2022   Q2:2022   Q3:2022 
U.S. real GDP annual growth rate   -1.5%    +5.7%       -1.6%    -0.6%   +3.2%
U.S. real private GDP growth   -1.5%   +6.3%    -2.0%     -0.6%   +3.6%
Louisiana real GDP growth   -8.1%   +2.6%    -8.9%     -3.0%   +2.5%
Louisiana private real GDP growth   -8.9%   +2.9%      -7.9%     -3.2%   +2.8%

The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of +5.8% (ranked 19th) in Q2:2022 (tied +5.8% U.S. average) and of +2.5% (ranked 47th) in Q3:2022 (below +5.3% U.S. average).

Bottom Line: Louisianans gained jobs in February but continue to feel the costs of restrictive policies that reduce opportunities for them to find well-paid jobs. Institutions matter to human flourishing, but they are too weak in Louisiana according to the Fraser Institute’s ranking of 20th for economic freedom. And the Tax Foundation recently ranked the Pelican State as having the 12th worst business tax climate and 15th highest corporate income tax rate. The state has improved its tax code recently and lower taxes may happen soon, but excessive government spending, highly complicated personal income tax code, and poor business tax climate contribute to a net outmigration of Louisianans and a 19.6% poverty rate that ranks highest in the country. State and local policymakers should work to reverse this trend by passing pro-growth policies. 

Exactly what pro-growth policies should be pursued? Refer to “Louisiana’s Comeback Agenda,” which Pelican released earlier this month, for policy recommendations related to the state’s budget and taxes, K-12 education, public safety, social safety nets and workforce development, technology and innovation, and reducing regulatory barriers.

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